$15 per gallon of gas… coming soon?
What do you think life will be like when gasoline costs $15 per gallon?
That’s the question asked of a group of scientists, sociologists, others, and myself who gathered at the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy(ACEEE) Summer Study in 2006. (ACEEE has really great resources for consumers on its Web site, including energy efficiency ratings for cars and appliances.) The Summer Study is on my mind because every two years ACEEE hires Home Energy to come down to Asilomar State Beach and Conference Center in Pacific Grove, California to publish a daily newsletter at the meetings. I know, a tough assignment!
Besides traditional presentations and discussion, the last Summer Study on residential energy use had groups competing to heat water above 1400F using a pop bottle, some bubble wrap, aluminum foil, a test tube, and the partial sunshine of the Pacific Coast. And, as I described in my introduction, the Summer Study gathers experts in many fields to look to the future and try to imagine what life will be like when fossil fuels begin to run out. Many people (including me) think we have reached worldwide peak oil, and the downward trend in oil production will bring higher and higher prices at the pump, for heating oil, and for many things we use every day that are either made from fossil fuels or are transported to us using fossil fuels.
When gasoline hits $15 per gallon, I think we will all be driving less. As transportation costs rise higher and higher, I think we will be forced to buy food grown locally and products made locally. It will still make sense to import some things from other states and other countries, but that will be increasingly rare. And I don’t think we’ll be building big houses in the suburbs and exurbs much. It will cost too much to heat, cool, and power a 4,000 to 5,000 square foot house and also commute 100 miles a day to work, even if the driver makes good money.
While a few religious people will wait and hope for the end of the world, I think many more will look to their local faith communities, as well as their families and friends, for mutual support as energy and other resources become scarce and fear towards the future increases. (Didn’t churches invent the food bank?) I’m not sure that we’ll all be living in communes, but there will be more groups living in large homes, and more people living in apartments, condominiums, or small single-family homes in or near cities.
Buses, subways, trains, and other forms of mass transportation will become much more popular, and large SUVs driven to the grocery store and soccer practices will become rare. I also predict… that hand cranks for windows, like I have on my 1997 Geo Prizm, will make a comeback! It will be harder to get parts for our complicated, automated machines and home appliances, and simple, tried and true technology will be in.
What do you think life will be like when gasoline costs $15 per gallon?
Tags: cars, energy, environment, gas, oil
March 12th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
So, in other words. . .we will de-evolve. Maybe start living in clans and travel no more than 15 miles from our home in a lifetime.
March 12th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Hello Aluvendale,
Maybe… or we might evolve into people who are less dependent on wasteful and polluting technology. I don’t predict the end to technology, just technology that depends too much on cheap fossil fuels.
March 13th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
I agree with Jim. Technology isn’t going away but it is going to change, especially in terms of how vehicles are powered.
March 22nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
I agree with what the post says… but with an additional consideration. If one is aware that fertilizers are essential to the high rate of production of farm food crops, and that transportation of food is also built into our current system, there are some worrying implications. Fertilizers are made from oil and natural gas, and of course most transport is based on the same. For that reason, we need to be concerned with massive food shortages, hunger, and wars over the ability to feed one’s nation, town, or clan. The key to minimizing this is an urgent move toward renewable energy. Our present snail’s pace of experimenting with renewables may well fail to prepare us for hitting a wall of declining oil availability, increasing prices, and increasing demand.
April 3rd, 2008 at 8:56 pm
We have already starting buying produce from local growers, because of the extreme prices of fruits & vegies from outside our State. My husband has been joking for years that we’ll be back to the horse and buggy; except that I don’t think people in the country (since horses need room) would be able to feed them with the grain/hay so hard to come by lately.
April 11th, 2008 at 6:02 am
I would like to come here again. It sounds god to me, and there’s a lot of interesting information here
April 12th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
It seems you have fallen victim to the common fallacy that we as a society will sit a take this. If gas ever reaches 15 dollars a gallon we will then be slaves to the rich. I for one will never be ones slave.
I don’t think you are old enough to remember the shortages of the 70’s. I am. I remember how resourceful people became. I remember people began to burn wood for heat. They drove less and when they did drive they carpooled and used more efficient vehicles.
My point is humans won’t sit and take this. I know I will not. We are all educated people in this country, sometimes I even forget this myself. I can even generate enough sustainable power to get by in a pinch when needed. I do not have a PHD and I figured that much out.
September 30th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
[...] $15 per gallon of gas…coming soon? [...]
September 30th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
I’m not sure why $15 gasoline is such a problem. I’ve never owned a car in my life and it hasn’t held me back any. Sure there will be inflationary effects due to the increased cost of transportation for goods. But that’s an incremental thing, not a game-changer.
Get a bike, and get the kids on bikes. Choose homes near public transportation and within walking distance of shops. It’s easy to do and makes life so much more pleasant.